Sweden’s Centre-Left Bloc Holds Slim Lead in Pre-Election Polls
Sweden’s Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election
By Ilze Filks and Terje Solsvik
Polling Results and Party Standings
STOCKHOLM, Sept 11 (Reuters) - Sweden's centre-left opposition was polling just ahead of the ruling right-wing bloc ahead of Sunday's parliamentary election, indicating that voters may reject the government's alliance with the far-right.
Across Europe, far-right parties have been on the rise, with Alternative for Germany, which opposes immigration and backs closer ties with Russia, winning a state election and Marine Le Pen leading polls for next year's presidential vote in France.
Key Candidates and Party Leaders
But in Sweden, Social Democrats leader Magdalena Andersson was favourite to become prime minister again after four years in opposition, replacing Ulf Kristersson of the centre-right Moderates, a September 2-10 survey published on Friday showed.
Survey Data and Voter Support
Sweden's four left-leaning parties had a combined 50.8% backing, estimated to give them 180 seats, while the coalition government and its far-right support party, the Sweden Democrats, stood at 47.6%, or 169 seats, according to the survey of 5,642 voters conducted by the Indikator Opinion polling firm.
Kristersson has overseen a shift in Sweden away from the liberalism for which the country was once known, introducing some of Europe's toughest policies on immigration.
Andersson's bloc, which has pledged higher public spending, has retained a majority in every poll published this year, with the three most recent surveys pointing to a margin of around 10 seats, although the race has tightened in recent weeks.
Kristersson says that if his bloc wins, the Sweden Democrats, which has apologised for its past links with neo-Nazism, would join the government for the first time.
Divisions and Policy Differences Within the Left
Coalition Challenges
DIVIDED LEFT
The centre-left remains divided over which parties should be included in a government headed by the Social Democrats, with the Centre Party and the Left Party each ruling out taking part if the other is in.
Policy Disagreements
The parties also differ on key policies, from a tax on billionaires to whether Sweden should build new nuclear reactors.
This may in turn lead to lengthy negotiations and the formation of a minority government including some, but not all, opposition parties if the left wins.
Key Election Issues and Expert Opinions
Shared and Divergent Priorities
The rival blocs both support Ukraine in its fight against Russia's invasion as well as military rearmament at home and relief for households hit by the rising cost of living.
But while the campaign focused on a range of issues including Sweden's welfare state, immigration and crime, there was no single dominant issue, experts said.
Expert Analysis
"Nothing has really stuck, it's been sort of unsatisfactory in that sense," said Nicholas Aylott, an associate professor at Sodertorn University.
The centre-left opposition looked set to win, albeit by a narrower margin than seen in polls during early summer, Aylott said.
"It would be somewhat sensational if the governing parties were to make up the gap... So I probably don't think it's going to happen, but you never know," he added.
Party Performance Since the Last Election
Social Democrats and Sweden Democrats
The Social Democrats maintained their position as Sweden's biggest party with 28.6% support, a drop of 1.7 percentage points since the 2022 election, the poll conducted on behalf of public broadcaster SR showed.
The anti-immigration Sweden Democrats party maintained its position as the governing bloc's biggest group with 18.3% support, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points since the 2022 election, the poll showed.
Role in the Government
The party has been propping up the ruling coalition without being part of the cabinet.
(Reporting by Ilze Filks and Terje Solsvik, editing by Anna Ringstrom and Philippa Fletcher)