Oil Prices Drop After Europe Releases Diesel Reserves in Response to US Request
European Diesel Reserve Release and Its Impact on Oil Markets
By Erwin Seba
HOUSTON, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Crude futures finished down after European leaders agreed to US President Donald Trump's request to release diesel reserves to lower prices and reduce fuel imports from the US.
Brent settled down 6 cents, or 0.06%, at $102.25 a barrel. WTI finished down $1.76, or 1.90%, at $91.11 a barrel.
For the week, Brent was up 0.11% with WTI 1.6% lower.
European Union's Response to US Request
European Union countries agreed to a French proposal to release additional diesel stockpiles, a source familiar with details of the discussion told Reuters.
"Europe has just agreed to release a massive amount of their heavily stocked Diesel Oil," Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social.
Previously, Trump had said he was mulling a ban on US diesel exports.
"Europe is feeling pretty vulnerable," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with the Price Futures Group. "Europe would be one of the areas to suffer the most if we put an export ban on diesel."
The French Proposal
EU governments acted after discussing the proposal by France for European countries to release 50 million barrels of diesel, and for International Energy Agency members to release 50 million barrels of crude oil, three sources familiar with the discussions told Reuters.
Under the proposal, Europe would release part of the diesel volumes in a 20-day period, two of the sources said.
French President Emmanuel Macron chaired a videoconference with G7 leaders on Friday, the Elysee Palace said. It was not immediately clear if G7 countries had agreed to France's proposal on the volumes of fuel to be released.
Market Stress and Supply Constraints
"This highlights that the main stress in the energy market is no longer crude availability, with Middle East flows recovering, but rather refined product supply, constrained by reduced refinery capacity and output across the Middle East and Russia," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.
Other Influences on Oil Prices
John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital, listed other issues shaping the oil market.
"The rhetoric back and forth between the US and the Iranians," Kilduff said. "The midterm elections. What kind of cliff does that represent for the president?"
"What's really making the Iranians talk again is the squeeze on their economy," Kilduff added.
Chinese Refiners and US Military Movements
On Thursday, prices settled higher after Reuters reported that Chinese refiners had suspended oil product exports for October to preserve domestic stocks. Also supporting prices, the Wall Street Journal reported that the US was sending a third aircraft carrier and up to 10,000 more troops to the Middle East as Trump weighed resuming strikes on Iran after the midterm elections.
Market Outlook and Forecasts
Hamad Hussain, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, said another release of oil stocks "could be enough to help tip the overall market back into a slight surplus if the recent pick-up in flows from the Middle East is sustained".
Barclays said in a note that despite better crude flows out of the Middle East, physical market fundamentals remained strong, with inventories still being drawn, and prompt cargoes commanding steep premiums over forward prices. It raised its fourth-quarter Brent forecast by $20 a barrel to $115 and lifted its 2026 forecast to $100 a barrel.
Geopolitical Developments
Elsewhere, Ukraine has struck oil facilities in Russia's Samara and Volgograd regions over the past 24 hours, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on social media on Friday.
(Reporting by Erwin Seba in Houston, Anushree Mukherjee in London,Jeslyn Lerh in Singapore; Additional reporting by Helen Clark in Perth; Editing by Alison Williams, Philippa Fletcher, Jan Harvey, Louise Heavens, David Gregorio and Sanjeev Miglani)
