Oil prices hold near 2-week low on gloomy demand outlook

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Posted By Wanda Rich

Posted on November 13, 2024

Oil prices hold near 2-week low on gloomy demand outlook

By Arunima Kumar

(Reuters) – Oil prices held near their lowest in two weeks on Wednesday, a day after OPEC downgraded its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025 and amid demand concerns in China.

Brent futures were up 49 cents, or 0.68%, to $72.38 a barrel at 1040 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 48 cents, or 0.70%, at $68.60.

Crude oil prices edged higher as tightness in the physical market offset bearish sentiment on demand. Buyers in the physical market have been particularly active, with any available cargoes being snapped up quickly,” ANZ analysts said in a note.

But falling demand projections and weakness in major consumer China continued to weigh on market sentiment and crude prices.

Oil prices have lately dropped sharply due to a stronger dollar following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election, weak Chinese stimulus efforts, and OPEC cutting its demand forecasts, said Charalampos Pissouros, senior analyst at XM.

“All these developments keep the risks surrounding oil prices tilted to the downside, suggesting that WTI crude oil may soon visit its September lows of around $65.70,” said Pissouros.

OPEC on Tuesday lowered its global oil demand growth forecast for this year and next, citing weakness in China, India, and other regions. This marked the producer group’s fourth straight downward revision for 2024.

Oil prices settled up 0.1% on Tuesday following the news, after a 5% drop in the previous two sessions.

The International Energy Agency, which has a far lower forecast, is set to publish its updated estimate on Thursday.

On the supply side, markets could still face disruption from Iran or further conflict between Iran and Israel, according to Barclays.

Trump’s expected pick for secretary of state, U.S. Senator Marco Rubio, is known for his hardline stance on Iran, China and Cuba.

Rubio’s appointment could be bullish for prices, as his hawkish view on Iran could see sanctions enforced, potentially removing 1.3 million barrels per day from global supply, said Panmure Liberum analyst Ashley Kelty.

Iran’s oil minister said the country had made plans to sustain its oil production and exports, and was ready for possible oil restrictions from the U.S, according to the ministry’s news website Shana.

Also in focus, is the American Petroleum Institute’s data, due at 4:30 p.m. EST (2130 GMT) Wednesday. Analysts polled by Reuters expect a 100,000-barrel rise in crude inventories for the week ending Nov. 8.

(Reporting by Arunima Kumar in Bengaluru, Colleen Howe in Beijing and Jeslyn Lerh in Singapore; Editing by Jamie Freed and Mark Potter)

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