Mixed Reports on Middle East Oil Supply Influence Global Markets
Market Reactions and Key Developments
Sept 21 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole.
Oil Price Movements and Middle East Supply
It's been an upbeat start to the week in Asia thanks in part to a drop in oil prices amid, sometimes conflicting, reports of increased supply out of the Middle East.
Impact of Regional Tensions
Brent had started higher after the Houthis attacked the capital of Saudi Arabia over the weekend, but soon slipped 2% on hopes the kingdom would quickly restore some flows through its East-West pipeline.
Conflicting Supply Reports
Admiral Brad Cooper, head of US Central Command, on the weekend said the volume of crude oil, cargo, and liquefied natural gas in the past two weeks was higher than at any point in the past six months. Ships were being escorted by the US military but running the Strait of Hormuz with their transponders off, making it hard to confirm Cooper's assessment.
Shipping data, for instance, showed just 12 commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday and Sunday, down from 35 during the previous weekend.
OPEC and Satellite Data Insights
Yet figures from analytics firm Kpler did show exports from the OPEC kingpin had recovered to just over 4 million barrels per day (bpd) so far in September after slumping to 2.4 million bpd in August, the lowest since at least 2013. [O/R]
Analysts at JPMorgan said satellite data indicated Saudi oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 2.9 million bpd over the past six days, up from just 700,000 bpd in August.
Global Market Responses
The drop in oil prices helped lift most share markets, though liquidity was light with Japan on a three-day break. Tech led South Korea up more than 1%, while Nasdaq futures added 0.6% and S&P 500 futures 0.4%.
European and Currency Markets
European share futures also nudged higher, with no sign as yet of any drag from news Chancellor Friedrich Merz's mainstream conservative party had suffered its worst election results since 1949. The euro was also steady at $1.1484, while the dollar drifted under 157.00 yen amid concerns the Bank of Japan might take advantage of the lack of liquidity to intervene in support of its currency.
The yen jumped on Friday after Japanese authorities conducted rate checks in the currency market, the Nikkei newspaper reported.
Diplomatic and Political Developments
It's also set to be a busy week for diplomacy with US President Donald Trump attending the United Nations General Assembly, ahead of a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng concluded talks in New York on Sunday with the US side proposing a new AI safety notification mechanism.
Key Events to Watch
Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:
- Appearances by ECB President Christine Lagarde, ECB Board member Piero Cipollone, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee
(By Wayne Cole; Editing by Sonali Paul)
