Euro zone yields rise, gap between German and US borrowing costs smallest in a month
Euro Zone and US Bond Market Developments
By Alun John
Euro Zone Yields Climb Amid Gulf Tensions
LONDON, July 16 (Reuters) - The gap between German and U.S. 10-year borrowing costs sat near its narrowest in a month on Thursday as the escalation of fighting in the Gulf sent euro zone yields higher this week, while cooler inflation data kept U.S. Treasury yields in check.
Germany's 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for the euro zone, was last 3 basis points higher at 3.135%, its highest since May 20.
It has risen 10 bps this week and 28 bps in July, as traders fear the renewed climb in oil and gas prices could push inflation higher and force the European Central Bank to raise rates more aggressively, and also weigh on longer-term economic growth.
Energy Prices and ECB Rate Hike Expectations
Benchmark European gas prices steadied on Thursday, but hit a 15-week high the day before. Brent was also down a fraction at $84.90 a barrel. [EU/NG] [O/R]
Markets currently see around a 90% chance of an ECB rate increase by its September meeting — that would be its second this year after June's hike — and a good chance of a third move by year-end.
ECB Policy Outlook
A rate hike at next week's meeting seems unlikely, but because of the move higher in energy prices, "ECB officials are likely to be more comfortable striking a somewhat more hawkish tone than would have been the case a few weeks ago," said Henry Cook, Europe economist at MUFG.
"The statement will likely retain the usual flexibility — data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting — but we expect (ECB President Christine) Lagarde will provide some hints that some further tightening is on the cards if energy pricing remains elevated."
Short-dated rate-sensitive German debt was moving in line with the benchmark 10-year yield on Thursday, with the 2-year yield up 3 bps at 2.75%.
BUND-TREASURY SPREAD NARROWING
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was last at 4.57%, up 3 bps on the day, but flat on the week, and up 15 bps on the month.
The United States is less exposed to energy from the Gulf than Europe, and traders have pared back bets on imminent Federal Reserve rate hikes after this week's cooler-than-expected prints for both consumer and producer inflation.
German-US Yield Gap Analysis
The gap between German and U.S. 10-year borrowing costs was last 143 bps, roughly its lowest since early June. It was as wide as 157 bps in late June, when European government bonds were rallying on signs oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz would resume, while traders thought the Fed may need to hike rates soon.
Other Euro Zone Spreads
Euro zone spreads were little changed with the gap between 10-year German and Italian debt at 78 bps and 10-year German and French bonds at 79 bps.
(Reporting by Alun JohnEditing by Alexandra Hudson, Kirsten Donovan, Colin Barr)
