Denmark Expects Escalation of Russian Hybrid Warfare in Europe
Denmark's Defence Intelligence Assessment on Russian Hybrid Threats
By Soren Jeppesen
Intensification of Hybrid Warfare
COPENHAGEN, Sept 24 (Reuters) - Russia is likely to intensify its hybrid war against the West in the coming months, Denmark's defence intelligence service said in a new threat assessment on Thursday.
Hybrid warfare and sabotage on European soil gained renewed attention after Germany recently blamed Russia for an attempted drone attack at the Leipzig/Halle Airport, prompting European Union members to call for new sanctions against Russia.
Russian Denials and Diplomatic Tensions
Moscow has repeatedly denied any involvement in hybrid warfare, sabotage operations in NATO countries, or plotting any confrontation.
The Russian embassy in Denmark rejected the assessment as unsupported by credible evidence and accused the West, led by Denmark, of driving up tensions over Ukraine.
"Our persistent warnings about the destructiveness of such an approach are being ignored," the embassy said in a written statement.
Escalation of Attacks and Military Risks
More Frequent Attacks Expected
MORE FREQUENT ATTACKS EXPECTED
The defence intelligence service said Russia would carry out more frequent attacks against the West and NATO "with greater consequences for the countries targeted than in the past".
Potential for Limited Military Attacks
It added that there was "a low but growing risk" that Russia would launch a limited military attack against one or several NATO countries that border Russia.
"A limited military attack would be a desperate move on Russia’s part and, like the intensified hybrid attacks, could potentially take place in the coming months," it said.
Types of Potential Attacks
Such attacks could include isolated strikes with long-range weapons like drones or missiles on infrastructure supporting Ukraine, or false-flag operations using Ukrainian-made drones, intelligence service chief Thomas Ahrenkiel said at a press conference.
He said Russia could also deploy a limited number of troops into a NATO border area, potentially under the pretext of protecting Russian minorities.
"The aim is not to take over the country, but to divide NATO," he said.
Recent Incidents and Cyber Threats
A Russian frigate last week fired two flares towards a Danish military helicopter sent to photograph it in international waters off Denmark, with one narrowly missing the aircraft, according to the Danish military.
In a separate statement on Thursday, the Danish Resilience Agency said it was likely that Russia would attempt to carry out destructive cyberattacks against Denmark and it raised its threat level.
(Reporting by Soren Jeppesen, Louise Rasmussen, Jacob Gronholt-Pedersen and Stine Jacobsen; Editing by Thomas Derpinghaus and Alex Richardson)
