New pope will face a Vatican budget crisis, and a myriad other problems

By Joshua McElwee

VATICAN CITY (Reuters) - Heavy is the white mitre worn by the pope. Whoever emerges from the coming conclave as the new leader of the 1.4-billion-member Catholic Church will face a myriad of problems.

Among the pressing issues are a widening gap in Vatican finances, church attendance is sliding in many Western countries, and doctrinal debates over issues like ordaining women as clergy and LGBTQ Catholic inclusion portend coming divisions.

The Vatican's financial crisis was one of Pope Francis' last headaches. 

Three days before his last hospitalisation in February, he ordered the creation of a new high-level commission to encourage donations to the Vatican, which is facing a budget shortfall and growing liabilities for its pension fund.

Although the Vatican hasn't published a full budget report since 2022, the last set of accounts, approved in mid-2024, included an 83-million-euro ($94-million) shortfall, two knowledgeable sources told Reuters.

The shortfall in the pension fund was estimated to total some 631 million euros by the Vatican's finance czar in 2022. There has been no official update to this figure, but several insiders told Reuters they believe it has ballooned.

Rev. Thomas Reese, a Jesuit priest and commentator who has written about the Vatican's finances, said the budget woes could have a "tremendous impact" on who the cardinals entering the secret conclave in the coming days choose as the new pope.

"They're going to have to elect somebody who's a fundraiser, not a pastor," said Reese.

If the cardinals are looking for someone who is familiar with where to make funding cuts across the Vatican's complicated bureaucratic structure, they may turn to Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin.

A leading papal contender, he was the Vatican's number-two official for nearly all of Francis' papacy.

But Parolin also led the Vatican's Secretariat of State when it was embroiled in a scandal over the messy investment of more than $200 million in the purchase of a building in London.

Cardinal Angelo Becciu, once one of Parolin's key deputies, was later convicted of embezzlement and fraud by a Vatican court and sentenced to five-and-a-half years in jail. 

Becciu denies all wrongdoing and is free pending an appeal.

DECLINES IN EUROPE

Across the world, the Catholic Church has grown slightly in membership in recent years. According to the latest official statistics, there were 1.405 billion Catholics globally at the end of 2023, up 1.15% from 1.389 billion at the end of 2022.

The highest proportion of Catholics are in the Americas, with 64.2% of the population in North and South America being baptized Catholic. Europe follows at 39.6%, Oceania with 25.9%.

But, generally, the rate of infant baptisms, a key indicator of growth for the faith, are highest in developing countries.

The highest ratios of infant baptisms per 1,000 Catholics, according to Vatican statistics, are in American Samoa (71.2), several islands in Oceania (37.7 to 21.8), Burundi (23.6), Cambodia (22.3), East Timor (20.3) and Myanmar (20.1).

Meanwhile, many European countries are experiencing declines. The German bishops' conference reported earlier this year that only 29 new priests had been ordained in the country in 2024, an historic low.

They also said around 321,000 German Catholics had left the Church that year. The total number of Catholics in Germany, whose population of 83 million was once about half Catholic, is now under 20 million.

Looking at the patterns of growth, some cardinals searching for the new pope may wish to turn away from Europe towards Asia or Africa. In that case, a likely contender is Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle.

A former archbishop of Manila who Francis asked to lead the Vatican's evangelization office in 2019, Tagle is known for a charming, down-to-earth persona and would be the first pope from east of modern-day Turkey.

The Philippines, a country of nearly 115 million, is almost 80% Catholic.

When Francis visited the Philippines in 2014, he attracted the largest crowds in papal history. An outdoor Mass in Manila included an estimated 7 million people.

But Tagle was also embroiled in a scandal. In 2022, Francis removed him from a job leading a Vatican-based confederation of 162 Catholic relief, development and social services organisations working in more than 200 countries.

Francis fired the entire leadership of Caritas Internationalis following reports of bullying by management. Tagle's role, akin to chancellor of the organisation, was mostly ceremonial.

DOCTRINAL QUESTIONS

In terms of doctrinal disputes, Francis largely sought to open up the Church to new conversations. Topics such as women's ordination, taboo for decades, were allowed to be debated. 

The pope created two commissions to consider ordaining women as deacons, who are ministers like priests but cannot celebrate the Mass. One of the commissions has not yet completed its work.

Francis also allowed for priests to bless same-sex couples, on a case-by-case basis.

His moves drew criticism from conservative Catholics, including a few cardinals, who feared he was watering down the faith. Some cardinals are now calling for a change of direction.

Cardinal Gerhard Mueller, a conservative, said the next pope should not be a successor of Francis, but a successor of St. Peter, the first pope.

Francis, Mueller told La Repubblica newspaper, was "a bit ambiguous" with doctrine. With regard to same-sex blessings, "you must not jeopardize the Catholic doctrine on matrimony," he said.

(Editing by Crispian Balmer and Janet Lawrence)